Eurexit

It has been twenty-seven years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but American foreign policy has not evolved to fit the new world. We have more military bases in Europe than we did post World War II. There seems to be no coherent answer as to the necessity of such bases. Worse, no justification of the burgeoning costs. Who are these bases designed to protect? Which European countries have an actual or even a perceived threat of foreign invasion, and by whom? Why can’t economic powerhouses such as Germany provide for their own national defense?

In short, Germany can, but won’t. Agreements amongst North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries stipulate that if one member is attacked, the others must come to their aid. This agreement acts as a one-way insurance policy for Europe. The United States pays the premiums; the costs of maintaining bases across Europe. If a member nation is attacked, the US, in practice, will end up shouldering a majority of the burden of defense.

In 2006, all NATO members agreed that a healthy number for defense spending as per their individual nation’s gross domestic product is 2%. Nearly 11 years later a majority of the member nations have not met this goal. In fact, with the exception of France, the United Kingdom, Greece and Portugal (and recently a few former Soviet Bloc countries) all other countries have failed in meeting their goals. Germany is the most notorious overlooker of its own stated goals and agreements with NATO. As the wealthiest country in Europe, they spend 1.2% on defense.

Europe is the beneficiary of the insurance policy, as a majority of NATO members do not have any significant investment in defense.  This agreement not only forfeits the rights of the US to decline participation if it is not in American interests; it is not and cannot physically be reciprocal. Germany and a majority of the rest of the member nations cannot aid the United States in times of conflict. Even if they wanted to, they are not capable of aiding in any meaningful way. This is a contractual obligation that these countries are in default of, which should render it unenforceable and void.

In January, the German Parliamentary Commissioner on the Armed Forces, Hans-Peter Bartels issued a shocking report which stunned the Bundestag. In it, he wrote that military personnel is at an all-time low, of a 170,000-man army. To put this in perspective, if this were hand to hand conflict, Germany would be evenly matched against the military of Bangladesh and Afghanistan. It takes new recruits approximately 45 weeks to get uniforms and many are trained with broom handles instead of guns and passenger vans in place of armored vehicles.  Only 1/3 of their fighters were operational and a staggering 5 of its 60 transport helicopters. To make matters worse, after a slight increase in spending in 2018, defense spending will again regress to an all-time low in the following year.

In June of last year, news of a German withdrawal from NATO exercises after less than 2 weeks of a 4-week exercise caused international embarrassment. Obligatory rules limiting overtime by German officials of military personnel highlights their attitudes in meeting their commitments to the EU to bolster their defense forces to appropriate levels and see to their own well-being. German attitudes on defense can be summed up by saying, “American pays for our defense, so why should we?”

You can’t blame Germany, however as they are choosing to spend this money on economic development and social welfare. The blame rests solely on the shoulders of US bureaucrats and politicians that allow a deal to continue in perpetuity in which the US is always on the losing end. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head when on a stump speech said that, “Our politicians are stupid, we are fleeced in almost every deal that we make with other countries”. In this case, that sentiment rings true.

Today, nearly 100,000 American military personnel and family reside in and around US military bases in Germany. Of the 43 military bases, the largest, Rammstein costs the US over $1 billion per year in operating costs. The other 42 bases’ operating costs are $240 million each per year approximately. That is a staggering $11 billion per year, of which Germany pays a paltry $1 billion of per year. To be fair, Germany does do what it considers “in-kind contributions” to its defenses. Insofar as its upgrades its own infrastructure in an around US military bases at a higher rate than say downtown Berlin redevelopment. This is laughable as it is similar to giving a Christmas present to someone knowing that they will not really use it. They instead buy it for themselves. In the same way, Germany builds its own infrastructure and believes that this directly contributes to their national defense.

Germany is the largest economy in Europe by a long-shot, the 5^th largest economy in the world and the number one exporter of goods around the world. 46% of the German economy lives on exports, compared to China at 20%. 9% of German exports are bought directly by US markets. In 2016, the US had a trade deficit of $65 billion with Germany; only third after China and Japan. Trade deficits are not bad by definition. It just means that more Americans are buying more products than Germans are buying American. The problem with the trade deficit lies in that they take actions to drive these numbers up, it causes angst among American manufacturers. The American taxpayers may wonder why they have to pay for the defense of a foreign nation that clearly has the resources to provide for its own defenses. After all, they are making a killing on a trade deficit alone, caused by high-tariffs on American automobiles sold in Germany.

An American withdrawal from Europe, in particular, Germany is advantageous to both sides. For the US, the burgeoning cost and gross overextension of military forces can be greatly alleviated by leaving a continent militarily that has no need of it. There are no super-power bogeymen lurking in the shadows waiting for the right opportunity to destroy Europe. There simply are no reasonable military challenges to the sovereignty of European countries. Europe has the ability and resources necessary to defend itself.

A successful and well-balanced democracy should consist of a healthy culture, government, citizenry, and military.  Germany can no longer neglect the latter of these. Eurexit would be a wake-up call. If they are left with no US protection, it will force them to build their own military, of which should be an easy task considering their vast wealth. If they don’t, that is their choice. In either scenario, the US should not finance this, especially poor choices.  

The status quo ensures that the US will be contractually obligated to fight in whatever conflicts that European nations find themselves in the future. Based on the example of history this is an extraordinarily frightening concept. US military in Europe continues the vicious cycle of helping EU nations to become totally reliant on American military might. 

There are no incentives for these nations to fund and develop their armed forces. They would prefer to save their money on social welfare because they know that they have the largest insurance policy that the world has ever seen with the United States. The US funds these policies, provides the services and the only possible beneficiary is Europe.

As the world moves hurling towards globalism, the United States should opt out of defense agreements that can be ruinous, non-reciprocal and never-ending. The United States must act aggressively in pursuing our own economic and military interest. There are no Panzers in France or Soviets in Poland anymore. It’s time to let the Cold-War geopolitical mindset go and abandon faith-based foreign policy and instead pursue American interest. The western world will be better off for it.